Current MCX Crude Oil Market Snapshot (October 23, 2025)
As of today, MCX Crude Oil futures are trading around ₹5,028 - ₹5,038 per barrel (open: ₹5,028, previous close: ₹5,037, day's high: ₹5,038, low: ₹4,991). This reflects a slight intraday recovery (+2.34% in global WTI equivalent at ~$59.87/bbl), but the broader trend remains bearish with a 7.88% monthly decline amid global supply concerns and softening demand. Volume is moderate at ~293,300 lots, with open interest at 18,615 lots.
Implied volatility (IV) for near-term options is around 28.5% (ATM for November expiry), indicating moderate expected movement—suitable for directional plays if momentum builds.
Disclaimer: Trading commodities/options involves high risk. These are educational insights based on current data and strategies; no call is truly "sure-shot." Always use stop-losses, risk only 1-2% of capital per trade, and consult a financial advisor. Past performance isn't indicative of future results.
Recommended "Sure-Shot" Call Strategy for Today
Based on recent technical analysis (5-min chart showing consolidation above key support at ₹5,000 with RSI nearing 50), here's a low-risk intraday momentum call for MCX Crude Oil options. This targets a potential bounce if volume picks up post-EIA inventory data (released Thursdays, but monitor for aftershocks).
Bullish Call Option Play: Buy ATM Call (Directional Bet)
- Instrument: MCX Crude Oil November 2025 Call Option (expiry: Nov 16, 2025; lot size: 100 barrels).
- Strike: 5050 CE (slightly OTM for better premium efficiency; current underlying ~₹5,030).
- Entry Trigger: Buy if spot price breaks above ₹5,050 (20-EMA on 5-min chart) with volume >1.2x average (~350,000 lots) and RSI >60. Estimated premium entry: ₹80-100 (based on current IV; check live chain on MCX/Dhan for exact LTP).
- Target Premium: ₹130-150 (30-50% ROI on premium; corresponds to spot target ₹5,100-₹5,150).
- Stop Loss: Exit if premium drops to ₹50 (or spot falls below ₹4,990; ~40-50% risk on premium).
- Rationale: Price is coiling near VWAP (₹5,020) with bullish divergence on MACD. Global WTI uptick today supports a short-covering rally. Max hold: 2-3 hours intraday to avoid theta decay.
- Risk-Reward: 1:1.5 (risk ₹50 vs. reward ₹75); position size: 1-2 lots for ₹10,000 capital.
- Alternate if Bearish Bias Builds: Skip and consider a straddle (buy 5050 CE + 5050 PE for volatility play ahead of weekend news).
Quick Comparison of Nearby Call Strikes (Estimated from Recent Chains; Verify Live)
| Strike | Est. Premium (LTP) | OI (Lots) | Volume | IV (%) | Delta (Sensitivity to Spot Move) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5000 CE (ITM) | ₹120-140 | 2,500+ | High | 29.5 | +0.65 (strong upside capture) |
| 5050 CE (ATM) | ₹80-100 | 1,800 | Medium | 28.5 | +0.50 (balanced) |
| 5100 CE (OTM) | ₹40-60 | 1,200 | Low | 27.0 | +0.35 (cheaper, higher leverage) |
Broader Weekly Outlook (Oct 2025)
- Bull Case: Break above ₹5,100 targets ₹5,260 (resistance). Catalysts: Positive EIA drawdown or Middle East de-escalation.
- Bear Case: Drop below ₹4,990 tests ₹4,800 (50-EMA). Risks: Rising US inventories, stronger USD.
- Key Levels: Support: ₹4,990 / ₹4,800 | Resistance: ₹5,100 / ₹5,260.
For live updates, check MCX option chain at www.mcxindia.com/market-data/option-chain or TradingView. If you're seeking paid tip providers (e.g., CrudeOilJackpotCall or MCXKing), search verified SEBI-registered advisors—avoid unverified Telegram channels.
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